The County's unemployment rate (not adjusted for seasonality) rose significantly from 13.9% in December to 14.8% in January. Unemployment rates tend to increase in January as seasonal holiday hiring ends. However, this magnitude (+0.9 percentage points) is unusually big by historical standards. The labor force increased by 5,600 in January, indicating that some people may have suspended their job search over the holidays. From the 3/'09 peak of 873,900, the County's reported labor force has fallen by 13,500, or 1.5%. The number of employed residents declined by 2,700 in January. For the 2009 calendar year, the average unemployment rate was 13.0%.
The County's unemployment rate (not adjusted for seasonality) declined slightly to 13.8% in November. The labor force declined by 900 -- rather unexpected since people should be out there looking for seasonal jobs prior to the holidays. From the 3/'09 peak of 888,500, the County's reported labor force has fallen by 17,700, or 2.0%. The number of employed residents increased by 1,900 in November, thanks to strong, seasonal, retail hiring (+5,500 in the two-county area). With the reduction in labor force and a slight increase in employment, the calculated unemployment rate declined as a result.
The total wage and salary employment in the Inland Empire metro area increased by 5,600 in November. This followed a strong increase in October of 8,200 jobs. November's employment figure was 4.6% below the 11/'08 level, the lowest year-over-year decline in a year. The construction sector lost another 1,200 jobs in November. Compared to its peak in 6/'06, this sector has lost 49% of its job base. The manufacturing sector lost another 400 jobs in November. Manufacturing employment is down 26% from its peak also in 6/'06. The logistics sector posted its fourth month-to-month job gain by adding 200 jobs in November. Much of the increase is likely seasonal to meet the needs of retailers during the holiday shopping season. This sector tends to see job losses in January. Retail employment rose in November as expected, but at a rate significantly below the levels during "normal" economic times.
The total wage and salary employment in the Inland Empire metro area increased by 8,100 in October. October's employment figure was 5.2% below the 10/'08 level, the lowest year-over-year decline in a year. The good news was tainted by the drastic revision of September's numbers. The change in wage and salary employment in September was initially reported as +3,900, but is now revised to -3,200, a 7,100 reversal, or nearly the same amount as October's increase.
The construction sector lost another 1,900 jobs in October. Compared to a year ago, this sector has lost 19% of its job base. The manufacturing sector lost another 600 jobs in October. Manufacturing employment is down 10.5% from 10/'08. The logistics sector posted its third month-to-month job gain in October -- adding 400 jobs again. Much of the increase is likely seasonal as retailers stock up their shelves for the holiday shopping season.
The County's unemployment rate (not adjusted for seasonality) rose to 14.0% in October. The labor force increased by 3,300 in October -- likely due to people gearing up for seasonal jobs. From the March 2009 peak of 888,500, the County's reported labor force has fallen by 18,100, or 2.0%. The number of employed County residents increased by 1,100 in October, the first significant month-over-month increase since April 2008. However, the number of unemployed residents rose by 2,200. The official unemployment rate rose as a result.
What is the "real unemployment rate" that includes discouraged workers and the under-employed? The best national estimate, called U-6, was 17.5% in October, compared with the official national unemployment rate of 10.2%. That's about a 72% increase from the official rate. If we use that ratio and apply it to the County's official unemployment rate of 14%, then we get an estimate of approximately 24%. This figure does not include people who have seen cuts to their hourly wages…
